Will North Korea ever use its nuclear weapons?
North Korea under Kim Jong Un: would he really detonate an atomic bomb?
With ever new tests and martial announcements, the North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un succeeds time and again in arousing excitement in the world. Nevertheless, experts do not expect that he will ever use his weapons. Because Kim's behavior follows a dramaturgy that many Germans are already familiar with.
In the end, North Korea’s state and party leader Kim Jong Un is ready to fire his nuclear weapons. The man who stands in the shadow of his father wants to prove to himself and the world that he is an equally tough and assertive leader.
Even if he is only 33 years old, has spent part of his life in the West, attended an elite boarding school in Switzerland - and actually has very different dreams than playing the great dictator.
The scene with an emotionally unstable Kim who died out of anger over his own life Plunge the world into nuclear war is part of the Hollywood comedy film "The Interview".
Fortunately, there is a lot to suggest that this fiction will remain pure fiction in the future, because experts do not expect that Kim will ever use his arsenal.
"Kim is not suicidal"
"Kim is not suicidal," said defense expert Michael Raska from the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore after a report in "Welt". "Any form of attack would immediately trigger a counterstrike, and that would be the end of North Korea ".
But even if Kim is probably very well aware that every real attack would be tantamount to suicide, according to the expert, he can no longer do without increasing the threat at regular intervals.
"He needs an enemy. He needs them evoke external danger to his homeland. That is the essence, "said Raska." You are in a constant state of crisis there in Pyongyang.
A constant crisis that is not only intended to justify the enormous expenditures of the communist dictatorship on the military, but above all serves as a justification for the fact that the people have been in a state of affairs for decades continued mass poverty lives.
A poverty that is offset by comparatively gigantic expenditures for the military. According to expert estimates, the rocket and nuclear tests to date alone have cost around four billion dollars. A lot of money is that which is missing everywhere else in the country of the starving population.
One of the last communist dictatorships on this planet
The regime does everything for its people so that it does not rise up at some point and topple one of the last communist dictatorships on this planet a concrete enemy image to deliver.
The West, above all the US, is to blame for everything: the lack of food, poor medical care, energy problems and general decay.
Only with a constant state of war can the government justify the deficiencies that are obvious to everyone. As soon as the isolated country got into a state of détente in foreign policy, precisely this justification and that would be missing Anger of the population could be directed inwards.
This is a mechanism which, by the way, does not apply exclusively to the dictatorship in North Korea, but which many Germans will also remember from the collapsed GDR, the former socialist "brother state" of North Korea.
For East Berlin, too, the talk was of one imperialist threat, the imminent threat of war and an alleged attack strategy of NATO, long part of the ideological DNA, with which, among other things, the wall, the shooting order, but also supply shortages and gigantic military expenditures could be justified. Martial military parades were once part of everyday life in East Berlin.
It goes with this well-known dramaturgy that Kim also garnishes his tests with slogans, which should first and foremost be directed inwards.
Kim subordinates one to the USA "Beheading operation" against his country to plan - and probably does not believe in this, knowing the foreign policy of the Obama administration so far, quite absurd accusation.
But never mind, because the accusation is above all Theater for the people, to which Kim announced the thrust for the coming months in another quote from North Korea.
Kim wants to expand nuclear arsenal
"The only way to defend the sovereignty of our people and their right to exist in the current extreme situation is that to expand the quality and quantity of an atomic force", said Kim after a report of the dpa.
So if there is still a lack of food, supplies and medication in the future, no one in North Korea needs to ask much, it is clear where the money has to go in troubled times.
But even if Kim will never launch a real attack on one of his neighboring countries out of his own will to survive, the situation is according to the North Korea expert Raska but not without dangerbecause the regime has to react somehow to the new sanctions, if only to justify a further general deterioration in the quality of life in the country.
This time it should also hit the powerful party cadres, because even popular luxury goods such as expensive watches are no longer allowed to be imported into the country after the latest sanctions. This leads to unrest among those of all people who could be dangerous to young Kim.
North Korea will soon onedetonate fifth atomic bomb test or "another bang" from his armory, emphasizes Raska in "Welt".
Then it will again be up to the West to find an appropriate response to the ongoing provocations - one that limits the regime - while preventing further escalation.
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