“E” Operation. Russia saved Erdogan from US intelligence

Replicated version of staging a coup by Erdogan looks convincing, if only because that the representatives of both sides consciously risked their lives and died - as the coup participants and supporters of the incumbent president. During the attempt to break through the Bosphorus Bridge, killing one of the companions of the Turkish - the organizer of his campaign Erol Olchak. Together with the 16-year-old son. If we were talking about the staging, it is doubtful that such a senior party functionary did not know about it. On the other hand, that such a man could sacrifice his life and his own child for normal play, it is not hard to believe. The play, even a very high quality delivered, not worth the risk.

Having agreed on this, we proceed to a much more realistic version.

Trying Erdogan liquidation

At the initial stage the coup, seizing and blocking key strategic objects acted sufficiently clearly and coherently. Under their control were airports of Istanbul and Ankara, the building of the ruling party in the capital, offices of a number of media, public institutions, the bridges over the Bosporus (the latter was strategically dubious decision, but the seizure was carried out quite effectively), a significant part of military infrastructure, including General Staff. Allegations that the pair-colonels coup, based only a few mouth conspirators were able to capture the general staff and the entire garrison, sounds ridiculous.

The air was raised aviation, and developed this aviaboi. To solve this issue at the level of major or colonel hardly managed to. Again, if we were talking about the staging, the pilots as soon as they began really to kill, would have sounded the alarm that they are on is not signed.

In the case of Erdogan’s murder in the first minute of the coup that apparently planned conspirators, the situation would have evolved quite differently scenario. Supporters of the president, most likely would have been demoralized and no longer capable of such organized resistance.

In this, perhaps, lies the explanation of why high-ranking generals of the Turkish army - and for their participation in the coup, remember, arrested more than 100, including the commanders of the armies, navies and offices of the General Staff - prematurely not open their faces. “Light” as the legitimate president of the murderers he did not need.

But the claim to be a serious force, which would take responsibility for the formation of the new government in a country demoralized generals might well. Unbranded killers legitimately elected head of state it would have been much easier to find a common language and moderate supporters of the existing government, and with the international community.

The role of Western intelligence agencies

What is important is another interesting point. In the first hours after the start of the coup by Western leaders took a waiting stance and refrain from specific comments, keeping the field for political maneuver. And only after that, Erdogan appeared on the screens, safe and sound, and the coup was virtually suppressed, official Ankara began to express support from the West.

Moreover, while taking off from Marmaris Erdogan tried to land in Istanbul, an American TV channel NBC, owned by the corporation General Electric, announced to the world that the Turkish president allegedly asked for asylum in Germany, and he it was denied. This news suffered thousands of media around the world.

Why was this done? After NBC - not that channel, which is the love of art will be launching “duck”. All indications are that this news Erdogan tried to de-legitimize and his supporters - disappointed in the leader.

The most note a double bottom. The first level was the fact that the president allegedly fled and left his country. The second - that it is not recognized by the world community. But Erdogan acted decisively enough and focus on denial of asylum did not load: Turkish President all night trying to be in touch by controlling the mood of the masses through social networks.

There is clearly look out “ears” of the Western powers and intelligence agencies in the coup. News from refusing Erdogan in the German asylum on NBC launched, certainly not any Turkish Divisional Commander. And no Turkish brigade commanders forced the leaders of the Western countries to play for time with an expression of his official position. Moreover, the Turkish army - largely pro-American, with the US having very close links at all levels. Unlikely to be in this situation it would have taken something that could have hurt its main ally. Erdogan also condemns favorite partners and its own military force against Syria, should cause both at one, so the others, now furious.

Everything points to the fact that someone from the outside knocked Turkish warriors in the rebellion and promised them recognition in case of success. And then washed his hands as soon as the attempt failed. And given the dissatisfaction with Erdogan’s reconciliation with Russia and pro-American sentiments in the army to easily calculate the “triumph of the culprit.”

Erdogan, incidentally, is already in plain text stated that according to his information, the coup there were some foreign governments (plural).

Significantly, both disapproving and scornful even became president of Turkey in recent days to respond to the collective West. For him, it is obvious to which side the light wind blew, sulkily sails coup. In the speeches of the President of the Turkish emphasis on the fact that the opinion of the European Union is no longer important for him: “The European Union - this is not the whole world.”

Anti-Western sentiment demonstrate not only the words, but actions. On the territory of Turkey at the time of the state of emergency suspended the European Convention on Human Rights. Moreover, the Turkish authorities have announced their intention to rebuild their own country the death penalty, and probably do, that would be a symbolic rejection of the European integration process.

Although, the first violin in support of the conspiracy, apparently played not Europeans, who in the military and political terms, simply did not have enough influence on the Turkish “Asgarov.” Moderators revolution certainly were overseas. And the fact that Ankara is disconnected from the power Incirlik air base, bringing the US representatives to diplomatic tantrums, says that Erdogan understands everything and is not going to forgive the Americans.

The dual role of the generals

Draws attention to the fact, the ease with which the rebels captured the supreme command of the armed forces. In particular - Chief of Staff, Air Force Commander and the Navy Commander. The rebels clearly know the location of each of the generals of schedule: Commander of the Air Force, for example, at this time was not at home, and walked to the wedding of the daughter of his friend. And each of them was captured almost without noise and dust.

It seems that the representatives of the Turkish army commanders were not opposed to their “captured.” And it is possible that after the coup, on the request of the lowest slave and the Turkish people, and they would have taken for the first time all the power in the country in their hands.

The media soon leaked information that the arrested participants of the uprising allegedly point to the Chief of Staff as an accomplice of the coup, although he had a reputation proerdoganovskogo frame. A commander of the Navy - incidentally captured or taken hostage? - Altogether disappeared in an unknown direction, and the like even with 14 warships, which is a significant part of the Turkish surface fleet.

Another question arises: would become Erdogan in conditions of total instability that risk and virtually no objective reasons to behead one day his entire army? I doubt it.

Consequence of failure: Erdogan disappointed in the US

Tactical operations of the rebels were prepared and performed very competently. But at the strategic level, it was voted down. It was not taken into account the views of ordinary people who, as it turned out, for the most part love and respect their president. Whatever it was in the eyes of foreigners, the Turks have chosen yourself Erdogan and will now most likely to maintain the way - purely because of the principle.

One of the keys to the success of Erdogan was the ability to quickly and efficiently mobilize their supporters. Another - his awareness. The fact that the impending coup led Turkey told his son, to learn about what is going through their own channels, hard to believe with great difficulty. If the information received from the Russian side, Erdogan, to intercept the alleged negotiations with the rebels in Syria, it is a great victory for Russia. It is understood that, after everything that happened around Syria - absolute faith Turkish President not. But the fact that it is for us today a better option than war, under the influence of a wholly American - that’s a fact.

Through pervasive cleaning and introducing a state of emergency for the complete subordination of the army to the government, Erdogan did not only decide on the political stabilization, but also nullifies the American influence in the Middle East. Perhaps his rejection of loyalty to Washington jeopardize the system of the US presence in Eurasia.

You can not even 100% exclude the possibility that after the rejection of European integration, Ankara may in the circumstances to initiate the withdrawal from NATO. Much probably depends on the fact that during the investigation lash arrested generals, but rely on a sharp turn, of course, too early - membership in the Alliance strongly binds states together and break these bonds is very painful. In the end, the entire military infrastructure and the organization of the army built according to NATO standards.

Nevertheless, all of Turkey and the whole world stood in anticipation of the results of the first after the restoration of Vladimir Putin’s meeting of the Russian-Turkish relations with Erdogan, scheduled in the first week of August in the Russian territory. I’m sure it will bring a lot of surprises.

Big game continues.

Knyazev Sviatoslav

22 July 2016

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