Nikkei: Fortuna over and over again makes gifts to Putin

Luck literally haunts Putin’s foreign policy, writes in his article for the Nikkei American political scientist Ian Bremmer. According to him, the Russian president has benefited from various international crises, even without direct concern to them.


“Some leaders are born under a lucky star, others have to fight for their own good fortune, and the third as Vladimir Putin, she literally falls into his hands,” - writes in his article for the Nikkei American political scientist Ian Bremmer. In his opinion, the Russian president - “clever political opportunist” who never misses an opportunity to take advantage of a difficult international environment.

Some in Washington accused the Kremlin in the organization of hacker attacks on the National Committee of the Democratic Party and the campaign headquarters of Hillary Clinton. Search guilty in this case, the author provides professionals. At the same time, he said, fears that Moscow known American secrets and she can manipulate on the US presidential election, Putin probably cause a smile.

“The Republican candidate Donald Trump really threatened to destroy NATO from within and recognize the Russian annexation of Crimea - continues Bremmer -. It is also true that Putin blames Hillary Clinton is that in 2011, as secretary of state, she incited the protests against him in Moscow” .
Whatever the truth about the hacker attack, the chances of Trump to win the election is extremely low, according to the author of the article. But after years of suspicion of the Americans is that they provoked political turmoil in the former Soviet republics, Putin appeared understandably enjoying anxiety caused by his alleged role in the US presidential campaign.

Meanwhile, emphasizes Bremmer, Putin’s success is not limited to the United
States. The Russian president has got significant concessions from the White House on Syria. In exchange for help in the fight against “Islamic state” * Washington agreed with Moscow to coordinate attacks against militants of the terrorist group “Al-Nusra Front” *, which represents the “greatest threat to Assad.” Moreover, the effect of these agreements was the actual recognition of the legitimacy of the West prevalence of the Russian military in the Middle East.
Breksa also strengthened Putin’s position as the referendum is likely to lead to a weakening of European sanctions against Russia, because the United Kingdom was one of the most influential anti-Russian voices in the EU, says the expert. Now Moscow can more convincingly promote their alternative project, EAEC, in defiance of the European bloc disintegrating.

The failed coup in Turkey and further persecution by the authorities of internal enemies, “real or perceived” also played into the hands of Putin. European leaders have warned that because of this tough policy the country is losing chances to join the EU, but it does not stop the President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Tired of criticism and insincerity of the West, he made a turn towards Moscow, which is pleased to have on your side a key ally of NATO in need of its political and economic support.
In China, too, there is an occasion to strengthen cooperation with Russia. Beijing angered the recent decision of the court in The Hague, which did not recognize his right to the disputed territories in the South China Sea, and therefore he has invited Moscow to join naval exercises in the region.

“. As in the case of Turkey, at the Russian-Chinese cooperation has its limits These states often compete than cooperate, but they may continue to offer each other the shelter when their relations with the US and Europe will deteriorate.”, - Said the author of the article.

Russia has still a lot of problems. Because of allegations of doping, many of its competitors have not been able to take part in the Olympic Games. The price of oil will not soon top, and this is a serious concern in Moscow. The country did not modernize its economy, and it has few reliable international allies. But so far everything is going as we would like Putin, and he will experience good luck to the limit, concludes Ian Bremmer.

* The terrorist organization, whose activities are prohibited in Russia (approx. RT).

13 August 2016

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