“Since the era of US world domination comes to an end, it is necessary to initiate changes in the balance of power of world powers” - Zbigniew Brzezinski (Zbigniew Brzezinski)

On the upcoming new global reorganization can be judged by the true state of affairs - the five basic realities, pointing to the beginning of global redistribution of political forces and the rapid political awakening in the Middle East.

The first of these realities is that the United States in the political, economic and military terms still remain the most powerful state, but given the difficult geopolitical changes of the regional balance of power, the United States is no longer the supreme power in the world. But none of the other major powers itself is not too.

The second reality is that Russia now takes the last stage of imperial seizure of involution and decentralization. Process is painful, but it does not mean that Russia is finally deprived of the opportunity to become, in the long run (if it is reasonable to act), the leading European nation state. However, now it is absolutely to anything spoil relationships and pushes away his former subjects on Islamic southwest his once vast empire, as well as Ukraine, Belarus, and Georgia - not to mention the Baltic states.

The third reality - is that China is steadily growing (albeit more slowly than in the past) as a future equal and probable US enemy, but as long as he tries not to throw an open challenge to the United States. Militarily, China seems to be trying to bring about a breakthrough in a new generation of weapons and at the same time aggressively consolidating its still limited naval force.

The fourth reality is that Europe is not now a global force, and it is unlikely it will become in the future. But it can play a constructive role by taking the lead in confronting international threats to the well-being of the planet and even the existence of mankind. In addition, Europe is politically and culturally is a US ally and supports their core interests in the Middle East, and the steadfastness of Europe in the framework of NATO is essential for a constructive solution to the future of Russian-Ukrainian crisis.

Fifth reality is that what is happening now in the political awakening of postcolonial Muslim countries is partly a belated reaction to the sometimes harsh suppression of their - mostly from European countries. This reaction combines a belated, but a strong sense of injustice and religious motivation, brings together a large number of Muslims against the outside world. But at the same time because of the historically formed Islam uncoupling of sectarianism, which has no relation to the West, the growth of historically caused resentment and claims also contributes to differences in Islam.

These five realities, taken together for a common basis, we are told that the US should take the initiative to change the global balance of power so that the violence that occurs in the Muslim world and sometimes goes beyond its limits (which may subsequently will spread and from other countries that were part of the so-called third world), could constrain without violating international order. We describe in general terms the new architecture developed a strategy taking into account the realities of the five listed above.

First, America can effectively counter the existing violence in the Middle East if it will create a coalition, which in varying degrees, will participate, among others, Russia and China. In order for such a coalition could be created, you must first convince Russia to abandon the action based on the unilateral use of force against its neighbors - especially Ukraine, Georgia and the Baltic countries. And China will need to dissuade that selfish passivity in emerging regional crisis in the Middle East would be politically and economically advantageous to implement its ambitions in the international arena. This short-sighted policy of the two countries should be directed in a different direction and make it more prudent.

Secondly, Russia for the first time in its history, is truly a nation-state, which is extremely important and at the same time is not taken seriously. The Tsar’s empire, with its multi-ethnic, but mainly politically passive population ceased to exist during the First World War, and in its place came the Bolsheviks created ostensibly voluntary union of national republics (USSR), the authority which actually belonged to Russia. The collapse of the Soviet Union in late 1991 quickly led to the emergence of as his successor state with a predominantly Russian population and the transformation of the former “republics” of the USSR with the non-Russian population of formally independent states. Now these countries strengthen their independence, while China and the West use this new reality - in different regions, and each in their own way - to the detriment of Russia. Meanwhile, the future of Russia itself depends on its ability to become an important and powerful nation-state in the composition of uniting Europe. If it does not, then it is a very negative impact on Russia’s ability to confront the growing territorial and demographic pressure from China, which shows an increasing tendency (with the growth of its power) to cancel the “unequal” treaties imposed by Moscow to Beijing in the past.

Third, the rapid economic rise of China requires a serious country and a long patience and understanding that the desire to achieve rapid political results can lead to social problems. The best political perspective for China in the near future - is to become the main partner of the US on the issue of reducing global crisis like the one that is now being distributed (including those in the north-east) beyond the Middle East. If this crisis is not localized, it will spread and cover the southern and eastern regions of Russia, as well as western China. Local regional geopolitical objectives of operations in China are closer ties with the young republics of Central Asia, Muslim countries - the former British colonies in South-West Asia (particularly Pakistan) - and especially Iran (given its strength and resources of strategic and economic role). But it should be the aim of the global Sino-US agreements.

Fourth, restore the relative stability in the Middle East will be impossible as long as the local armed forces can count on the fact that there are privileges in the distribution of the conquered territories and at the same time selectively promote the extremists. Their ability to commit atrocities can be curbed only by providing more efficient - including the election - the pressure on the basis of US cooperation, Russia and China, which in turn raises the possibility of a reasonable use of force by the more traditional to the region formed states (namely, Iran, Turkey , Israel and Egypt). These countries also need to be more selective recipients of aid from Europe. In ordinary circumstances, Saudi Arabia would be on this list a serious player, but today the tendency Saudi authorities continue to support the ideas of the Wahhabi fanaticism (even though they are carried out in the country’s ambitious efforts to modernize) raises serious doubts about Saudi Arabia’s ability to play in a major region constructive role.

Fifth, special attention should be given to politically re-activates the masses outside the Western countries. The memory of people for a long time been subjected to political persecution, contributes greatly to the dramatic and rapid, heated awakening of Islamic extremists in the Middle East. But it is possible that what is happening today in the Middle East, it is only the beginning of a larger phenomenon, which arises in the future in Africa, Asia and even in the pre-colonial peoples of the Western Hemisphere.

systematic killings resulted in their not very distant ancestors of colonizers and their associated seekers wealth, arrived mainly from Western Europe (countries which today, in any case, according to rough estimates, the most open to the cohabitation of various nationalities), was in the last two centuries the destruction of the colonial peoples, comparable in scale to the Nazi crimes during the second world war - suffered by hundreds of thousands and even millions of people were literally. Political confidence, combined with the belated indignation and grief - is a powerful force, which is now coming to the surface, demanding revenge - and not only in the Muslim Middle East, but also, most likely, beyond.

Many of the data can not be clarified, but, in general, they are shocking. To cite just a few examples. In the XVI century, mainly due to diseases imported by the Spanish explorers, the population of the Aztec empire, lived on the territory of modern Mexico, was reduced from 25 million to about one million people. Similarly, in North America, approximately 90% of the indigenous population died in the first five years of dealing with European first settlers - mainly due to diseases. In the XIX century as a result of various wars and forced relocation has lost 100 thousand people. In India, in the period from 1857 to 1867 during the British allegedly killed a million civilians during the massacres that followed the uprising Sepoys in 1857. The fact that the East India Company used the Indian plantations for the cultivation of opium, which is then mainly to China was imposed, was the cause of the premature death of millions of people, not counting the Chinese who have been direct victims of the First and Second Opium Wars. In the Congo, personally owned by the Belgian King Leopold II, pp 1890 to 1910, 10-15 million people have been killed. In Vietnam, in the period from 1955 to 1975 at the last count were killed between one and three million civilians.

With regard to the Muslim world, in the Russian Caucasus since 1864 to 1867 years, it was evicted 90% of local Circassians, and from 300 thousand to 1.5 million people died of starvation or were killed. In the period from 1916 to 1918 killed tens of thousands of Muslims during the Russian authorities deported 300 thousand Muslim Turks through mountains of Central Asia to China. In Indonesia in 1835 to 1840 years of Dutch invaders were killed 300 thousand civilians. After the first civil war in Algeria in the period from 1830 to 1845 years as a result of the French atrocities, hunger and disease killed 1.5 million Algerians - almost half the country’s population. In neighboring Libya, the Italians were sent to concentration camps inhabitants of Cyrenaica, where in the period from 1927 to 1934 died from 80 to 500 thousand people.

More recently, in Afghanistan from 1979 to 1989, Soviet troops killed about one million civilians, and two decades later the US military during its 15-year war in Afghanistan killed 26 thousand civilians. Over the past 13 years in Iraq, the US and its allies have killed 165,000 civilians. (The difference between the data on the number of dead as a result of European colonization and the number of those killed by the United States and its allies in Afghanistan and Iraq can be partly explained by technological advances, allowing the use of military means with greater precision, and to some extent global climate change). No less shocking than the magnitude of these bloody crimes, it is how quickly they forgot about the West.

In today’s post-colonial world is starting to sound a new historical rhetoric. Muslim and other countries enjoy a deep sense of hostility to the West and his rejection of the colonial past in order to justify their deprivation, misery and lack of self-esteem. A good example of what experienced and feel that the colonial peoples, became a poem of the Sinhalese poet David Diop (David Diop) Vultures ( “Vultures”):

In those days,
When civilization backhand was us in the face,
Vultures its claws were
A monument to her bounty was stained with blood …

The fact that these events are becoming increasingly emerge in the Muslim world and, increasingly, the memory in the memory of other countries shows how much the influence of the past on the present, although it is, of course, does not justify violent action taking place today in the Middle East.

Given all this, the only suitable and viable option for the US, Russia, China, and having to do with the Middle East countries is a long and painful way to initially limited compromises and regional reconciliation. From the US, it will require persistence and patience in building constructive working relationships with some new partners (especially Russia and China), as well as to work together with the more traditional and historically proven Muslim countries (Turkey, Iran, Egypt and Saudi Arabia - if it can separate its foreign policy from the Wahhabi extremism), aimed at creating a more broad-based regional stability. In this respect, still can be helpful our European allies, primarily dominated in this region.

Complete withdrawal of the United States of its troops out of the Muslim world, favored by our American isolationists could provoke new wars (for example, between Israel and Iran, between Saudi Arabia and Iran, a major intervention in Egypt in Libya) and would have caused an even deeper crisis of confidence in relation to the stabilizing role of the United States in the world. In this case, Russia and China could - in different ways, but totally unpredictable way - learn from the situation geopolitical benefits - even though the world order itself geopolitically would suffer in the first place. And finally, last but not least, today’s member states fragmented and frightened Europe would begin to look for sponsors among this mighty trio and compete with each other, signing them with alternative, but separate agreements with anyone of them.

Constructive US policy should be carried out urgently and given the long term. The United States should seek to results that would contribute to a gradual understanding in Russia (apparently after Putin) that it can become an influential world power only as part of Europe. Rising in the Middle East, China’s role must reflect the mutual understanding of America and China that the growing US-Chinese partnership in resolving the Middle East crisis is historically an important test of their ability together to provide stability and to strengthen further in the world.

An alternative to a constructive long-term strategy - and especially the desire to unilaterally asymmetric targets dictated by the military and ideological reasons - to anything not lead, and will be only an empty and self-destructive waste of time. For America, this may result in a prolonged conflict, indifference, and perhaps even demoralizing return to its isolationist policies, which she stuck to the XX century. For Russia, this could mean a serious setback, raising the probability of a certain recognition of the dominant role of China. For China, this means war not only with the United States, but also (perhaps apart from this) with Japan or India - or both. And in any case, a prolonged phase of undamped religious quasi-religious wars going on across the Middle East under the flag of a hypocritical fanaticism, would lead to an escalation of bloodshed in the region and beyond, as well as the widespread rise of violence.

The fact is that before the advent of America on the world stage in the world were not truly “dominant” force. The British Empire had almost achieved a dominant position, but the First and Second World War, not only did it politically bankrupt, but contributed to the emergence of regional powers competing. Factor determining the new global reality, the emergence on the world stage of the United States, which were the richest player at the same time the most powerful militarily. In the second half of the XX century, no country could not even come close to its level.

Now this era is over. Although unlikely in the foreseeable future, any country would be able to challenge the economic and financial supremacy of America, thanks to new weapons systems, some countries may suddenly get the opportunity to go on suicide in the course of mutual attacks in a deadly battle with the United States or even surpass them.

20 April 2016

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