Bare US nerves: so why suddenly the Americans fuss?

The last steps of the outgoing US president could lead to a fundamental geopolitical shocks.

All the fun and interesting sounding statements from representatives of the ruling Democrats in the United States. Here are just recently Secretary of State John Kerry said that the US patience with the Syrian conflict and, in particular, President Bashar al-Assad, is over. It sounded just like an ultimatum.

But Washington immediately hastened to reassure Moscow that the Kerry statement should not be taken as a threat, it’s just a Kerry expressed his frustration with the current situation in Syria.


And The Wall Street Journal reported that 51 officials of the State Department of medium and high-ranking responsible for Syria, signed in-house confidential document urging Washington to take military action against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. That’s just plain text called for “immediately begin targeted military strikes against the Syrian government because of failure of the ceasefire agreement.” According to the authors, the US is losing potential allies among Syrian Sunnis in the fight against the IG, because they were forced to be diverted to a confrontation with government forces.

Why is it that Americans are so fuss? It seems to be agreed is that Assad will not insist immediate resignation as long as there is a confrontation with the IG, which is a common enemy to the whole world and poses a serious threat. However, once again broke the sacred “Asaddolzhenuyti”. Say, “the inability to stop the egregious crimes Assad only reinforces the ideological appeal of such groups as the IG, even when they suffer tactical defeats on the battlefield.”

The first thing that comes to mind in the analysis of such statements: Obama is preparing to make history. As has been mentioned, enter into it he is nothing. Also unfulfilled promises yes absentia Nobel Peace Prize, which today looks like a mockery of common sense, given the fact that in America started a reign of Obama in the Middle East, Ukraine, etc.

Obama, like outgoing president, by and large, has nothing to lose, but his successor, Democrat Obama’s legacy may yet come back to haunt. Therefore, the White House is extremely dire need at least something to show voters as achievements. But they simply do not. There will slide into the Middle Ages, Libya, rolling down to the Syria and Iraq, there is an Islamic state, damaged relations with traditional allies in the region, there is a smoldering Ukrainian conflict. Naturally, the inability to find “a needle” in a haystack achievements geopolitical failures severely irritates and Obama, and his associates. And time is left in-hm-hm, quite a bit.

It is difficult to say what are designed such ultimatums, what reaction the White House was waiting and waiting from Moscow. The sharp disavowal to the head of the State Department said in favor of the fact that Kerry really too nervous. However, apparently there really nervous about everything and thus accept such statements only as a game on the verge of a foul and empty threats are not worth it. They were sure to follow the action.

Again, Obama want results here and now. And they will produce them. Let it even be temporary results, but prior to the election you want to create the illusion that all is not so bad. This means that a minimum pressure on the Syrian and Ukrainian directions will increase.

In Ukraine, we see in the form of Washington’s attempts to shove anything that could be interpreted as the fulfillment of Kiev Minsk liabilities: here and vote for meaningless amendments to the Constitution in the presence of the US ambassador, and unexpected peace initiatives war criminals Savchenko voiced instead of the official authorities of the idea to talk to Donetsk and Lugansk at least for the mean, and even escalation of tension, to demonstrate that this militia (and hence - Moscow), rather than Kiev do not wish to implement the “Minsk”.

In Syria, things are much worse and harder. Firstly, because in Syria it comes to dealing with the most natural terrorism experience to which the average American remembers, and believes that the danger is much greater than in the mythical threat to Russian democracy of the world. Secondly, there is already openly involved the US military …

Note that the statement Kerry was noted that “Assad’s forces in Aleppo for a single day did not observe the truce.” The key word in all speech Kerry - Aleppo!

Recall, back in early May, in his speech to Russia and Iran, Kerry has said publicly that the United States Aleppo, Assad will not give up. Why is this city so important?

Here it should be understood that it is control over Aleppo may ultimately decide the outcome of the entire war. Finally lost Aleppo, the so-called “Moderate opposition” will lose influence on the processes occurring in the country, and given the fact that in the north it is almost cut off from Turkey, it will be possible to say that its cleaning - it is a short time. The leaders of the militants and their backers are well aware that if the current operation of the Syrian army for the liberation of Raqqa is successful, then the next target would be just Aleppo.

That is why Kerry is so upset by the fact that the “campaign of the Syrian government forces to seize Aleppo continues.” And what remains when militants green sharply intensified in this direction? If Russia’s claim for demarcation of terrorists and “moderates” were virtually ignored as a terrorist, “al-Nusra” continues to strike? If jihadists most actively used to regroup their forces cease-fire, as well as the fact that the major part of the CAA diverted to Raqqa and at this time they are obviously preparing for the decisive battles for Aleppo? Note that they are all the forces trying to derail even the 48-hour silence regime imposed by Moscow.

As I said earlier, if the pro-American coalition will be able to take the RACC (and continue the flight of fancy - to release the Deir al Zor) that would mean that the government forces are actually locked in a narrow strip of land on the west of the country along the Mediterranean coast. And then decide the outcome of war is just a question of who gets the second capital of Syria.

Who would not eventually took Rakka and attributed his IG laurels of the winner (which, incidentally, absolutely will not mean a victory over IG), his next goal will undoubtedly Aleppo. In fact, control of Aleppo, Raqqa even more important, given that the IG days as a key player are numbered. In the absence of a common enemy in the face of the IG, the fight against which the leading players combined for at least mean, the situation will be back to 2014, when Assad will remain one on one with all the others. And again, with the same force will sound “Asaddolzhenuyti”. Rather, since the triple force, as in Syria is already open are the Western coalition forces actually turning the country into a “thoroughfare”, mocking its sovereignty, and supported Kurdish autonomy it has become a reality.

And here, if Assad will not be able to take control of Aleppo, Idlib and Latakia provinces, provided that the RACC still take the Americans, and they also will control the eastern and central part of the country, its fate will be sealed. If we succeed - will have the opportunity to bargain and fight on.

Therefore, any action towards Assad in Aleppo irritate the Americans. For them, of course, it would be advantageous to Damascus focused on Raqqa direction to advance from the south government convoy got stuck there. However, a government convoy, despite the extremely dangerous to himself sprawling on the ground and the lack of an obvious plan of terrorists storming the capital, continues to progress, they say, slowly but surely.


Even worse for the Americans another storming Raqqa SDF forces apparently stalled the long haul. Kurds make up the backbone of the pro-American coalition to storm Sunni city did not want to. Apparently, only in order to spur them to continue the offensive, it was Kinuta “bone” as the prospect of taking manbij Jarabulus and the subsequent connection of Kurdish cantons.

However, the Kurds and manbij a storm in no hurry, because they understand that in spite of the complete environment, igilovtsy will fight to the death, and the attempt to direct the assault will lead to the same, what is happening in Fallujah, where Iraqi army and Shiite militia for almost a month trying unsuccessfully to cope with defending the city iN NUMBER group of militants, incurring, in fact, unacceptable losses. Apparently, the Kurds have relied on long siege manbij with the gradual expansion of the boiler. In such circumstances, to talk about the successful continuation of the attack on the RACC is not exactly necessary.

It is clear now why the Americans are nervous? For them, tomorrow the issue of the plane “to catch up to the election” could go into the plane “to catch anything.”

However, not only do they get nervous. Much more nervous Ankara, which is no longer thinking about that for which it is generally climbed in Syria, for which it is important not to defend the captured alien, and not lose his.

The Kurdish question for Erdogan and the Turkish state for the whole may be grave. Never before Turkey was not in such a catastrophic situation. Apparently, we are talking about the presence of at least two of the Kurdish autonomous regions on the border, which inevitably leads to the formation of the third - already within Turkey. At least, autonomy …

Syrian Kurds are slowly but surely take their toll. They especially do not hurry, simply because they have taken their already practically, only remains, as they say, to formalize. And they know that their opinion can no longer ignore neither the Americans nor the Turks, neither Assad nor Russia nor Iran. Before the same Americans whose success in Syria curled on the success of the Kurds, can “ponabivat price.” And all this, Erdogan can only look with horror and desperation, knowing that as long as the Kurds are allies of the Americans, Turkey absolutely powerless, and if tomorrow the Syrian Kurds with the Turkish brothers will carry the war deep into Turkey, Ankara will not be able to do anything, because . This would run counter to Washington’s guarantees. And Washington has promised that there is - God knows.

Every time I say that America will not seriously quarrel with its regional allies: Turkey and Saudi Arabia, I recall the words spoken in 2005 by the then Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice at Cairo University: “We are changing the course of … We support the democratic aspirations of all people. It is time to drop all the excuses that constrain the hard work of democracy. ”

After four years there, Obama said: “We meet at a time of great tension between the United States and living all over the world Muslims - tension rooted in historical forces, only to a small extent on America … I’ve come here to Cairo to try to open a new page in relations between the United States and living all over the world Muslims. ”

Unfortunately, at that time, after, few people paid attention to these words, and they are the key. They mean Washington’s willingness to completely reformat their relations not only with the Middle East, but the entire map of the region. Totally, you know? Need I remind you what happened in the region in the coming years?

Today it is obvious that Turkey States simply “thrown”, although formally continuing alliance and Washington’s use of Turkish military infrastructure for their actions in the region. Washington appears to have made a final bid for the Kurds, which in fact destroys the established decades before this alliance between Ankara and Washington, driving a wedge between the two countries and frees Ankara from any obligations.

But not only Turkey was in the “flight”. In a little better, but still a pretty unpleasant situation turned out to be other “friends of America” ​​- Saudi Arabia and the Gulf monarchies. By the way, if the Kurds are still completely closed Turkish border, and Rakka will be taken (and it’s all a matter of time, so that the “if” here is not very appropriate), the IG will begin to squeeze the south. What we have there to the south? What ideologues IG talked about Mecca and Medina? What “nezhdanchik” for Riyadh! Add to this the Yemen, where shackled already unfit for combat forces in Saudi Arabia, as well as the unstable situation in the kingdom, where Saudi authorities took not only oppressed Shiites - a full set of major trouble.

By the way, characteristic that these two countries that risk being “victims” of the settlement of the Syrian conflict - Turkey and Saudi Arabia, were the main instigators of it. Tripped “boomerang effect”, and now we are talking about is simply to successfully get out of this conflict with minimum losses. Sympathize with them, in principle, so stupid as to sympathize with the Europeans, who are also a lot of effort put in the destruction of Libya and Syria, and is now suffering the consequences of a migration crisis that in the near future with a light hand the desperate and ready for anything Erdogan promises become in “immigration chaos.”

The American adventure in the Middle East drew a lot of countries, but they are all at risk in times worse than Washington. Alas, many policy for some reason do not consider that the United States can afford to arrange a managed and unmanaged chaos around the world, rightly counting in the case of even the most adverse scenario to sit out of the ocean. And they had served.

Speaking of Erdogan. As has been noted, this is a man of very unusual and unpredictable. Predictability him only that he was ready to go to the end, and it can be expected all anything. Even what can not be expected in principle.

Given that Erdogan was in fact mites, under the main long-term ally of betrayal and lack of other options, the Turkish leader may well go for the most unexpected alliances.

It has been noted that Erdogan desperately looking for opportunities to make peace with Russia, which confirms his recent letter to Putin. He has repeatedly made it clear that it can be done in one way, which Erdogan simply can not go, because it will destroy his reputation. However, I am fully confident that Ankara intensively seeking the option of compromise that will satisfy Moscow, and allow “Sultan” save face. And the appointment of a new Prime Minister Binali Yildirim, who barely entered the office, immediately declared that Turkey needs to “increase the number of friends of the country and reduce the number of its enemies” - an indirect confirmation of the fact that foreign policy Turkey’s strategy in the near future may undergo forced changes …

Among the potential allies of Ankara may not only Moscow, but … Damascus.

June 14, Reuters reported something incredible: Turkey may soften stance against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad on the background of the fracture that has been made to the Kurds in northern Syria. The article says that Ankara is ready to adjust its foreign policy toward Assad (this is at least giving up demands for the immediate resignation in unison with “Rushing” Ankara States), if that would help prevent the creation of the Kurdish autonomy in their territories. The agency also points out that mitigation of Ankara’s position regarding Assad can help her to improve relations with Moscow, which, at present, the establishment of full-fledged Kurdish autonomy under the aegis of the USA as unprofitable.


As for Assad, here it can really become a situational ally of Erdogan, since he, too, did not want the Kurdish autonomy in the north of their country. I do not need it, and Iran, which has a major influence on him. On the other hand - Assad can cause extremely painful blow to Turkey’s recognizing Kurdish autonomy, at the same time to improve relations with the Kurds themselves and reduce the number of Washington’s claims.

In other words, there is something to talk about. Despite the external intransigence, Erdogan willingness to compromise will increase in direct proportion to the military and political successes of the Kurds in Rozhave. Turkey remains fully geopolitical isolation, and if she wants to survive - she would have with someone to negotiate.

Of course, the idea of ​​Turkey’s Union and Russia (and even more, and even Syria) may seem completely insane. But as they say, no smoke without fire. It is obvious that those who send signals Reuters have heard them. We hear them in Europe.

Paradoxically, there Erdogan may find an ally in spite of the extremely strained relations between Ankara and Brussels. Eurosceptics striving for power (by the way, supporters of the establishment of relations with Russia) could well find a common language with Turkey on the basis of resistance to American expansion.

21 June 2016

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